Bitcoin price falls below $95K on Tuesday, extending a four-week slide from its $109K peak.
Polymarket’s probabilities of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, also known as an SBR, in the United States decreased, which resulted in a decrease in the value of Bitcoin.
A poll conducted by Polymarket, which included assets worth over $6.9 million, found that the likelihood of Donald Trump establishing an SBR within the first one hundred days is 12%. The odds have been on a steady decline ever since they reached their highest point of forty percent in January.
Another poll revealed that the probability of the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act getting signed into law this year has decreased from a high of over sixty percent to a current level of thirty-eight percent. A survey conducted by Kalshi places these probabilities at 41%.
The state senate continued to hold hearings on the establishment of the reserve, during which they engaged in interviews with specialists and the state comptroller. These possibilities remained low. Other states, such as Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Alabama, and Wyoming, have representatives in their legislatures who have proposed laws to establish reserves that are comparable to those in Wyoming.
In order to determine whether or not to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, the Trump administration is looking into the matter. David Sacks, a venture entrepreneur who serves as the administration’s czar for crypto and artificial intelligence, has verified that these discussions are now taking place.
One of the potential options is to create a strategic fund using the seized Bitcoin. As indicated by BitcoinTreasuries, the United States government is in possession of 198,109 Bitcoins, which are currently valued at $18 billion.
There is also the possibility that the government will acquire Bitcoin through the recently established sovereign wealth fund. The creation of an SBR by the United States government would be significant because it could inspire other nations to adopt similar policies.
In comparison, the United Kingdom has 61,245 Bitcoins worth $5.8 billion, while China has 190,000 Bitcoins worth $18 billion. There is a possibility that additional purchases will take place at a time when the difficulty of mining Bitcoin and the demand for it are both increasing while exchange balances are decreasing.
Bitcoin price pattern points to a surge
The daily chart reveals that Bitcoin has maintained a narrow range throughout the course of the past few months, maintaining a position that is higher than the 100-day moving average. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that Bitcoin has developed a megaphone chart pattern, which is a well-known bullish indication.
The formation of this pattern, which is characterized by two trendlines that diverge from one another, generally comes before a powerful breakout after retesting the lower side of the channel. On the weekly chart, this pattern coincides with the cup-and-handle formation as well as the bullish flag formation, which indicates that Bitcoin may have a rebound in the weeks to come.
